One of the lures of horse racing is being able to make money by simply watching the tote board and betting on horses in a way that will guarantee profit. Quite a few people have written about it and there are even horse racing systems for it. But is it really possible to make a consistent profit just by playing the toteboard?
When Dr. Z wrote his famous book it revolutionized the horse racing betting world. Dr. Ziemba, a mathematics professor, proved that just by watching the toteboard and making fairly simple mathematical calculations, you could really show a profit as a toteboard handicapper. That’s the good news. The bad news is that if I am writing about it and many of you already know about it, how many people can actually do it before the bets are all driven down?
Here is a typical situation that I have actually run into. You watch the toteboard for a favorable situation. You race up to the window at the last minute and make your bet. You dash back only to find when you scan the toteboard and pools that everything has changed and the edge you had when you bet has vanished.
The problem is, quite simply that you weren’t the only one involved in the “gold rush”. Other bettors were heading for the windows at the same time because they had seen the same edge. As you probably know, the whole basis for Dr. Z bets is that you need to have an edge to make a profit. Therefore, you and all the other bettors at that track and in that situation, will not show a long range profit.
It was once a great deal, but now is getting harder and harder to do. The best methods still seem to be good old fashioned handicapping and using the toteboard to determine if there is inside money using something like the toteboard method in True Handicapping to determine if a horse is being bet by the stable after you’ve found a horse that appears to be fit and ready.
Combining good tote board watching with other factors does show an excellent profit when properly applied.
The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to Whats a Willie and get the truth.
Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store.
